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The Week Ahead: 21-27 April 2025

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 12:03:23 GMT

The Week Ahead

This week will see trials against former government officials for corruption in El Salvador and Peru — plus the creation of a committee in the Argentine Congress that will oversee the investigation of the so-called “Libragate” scandal.

Research for this newsletter was supported by Nelson, our AI-powered Latin American research companion. If you'd like to know more about Nelson, click here .

Monday 21 April

Holidays: �� Brazil celebrates Tiradentes Day, which commemorates the execution of Brazilian national hero Joaquim Jose da Silva Xavier in 1792. | �� Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago observe Easter Monday.

�� The Dominican Republic will require Haitian immigrants to show legal documents in order to access medical services as President Luis Abinader strengthens migration measures. Abinader announced 15 measures to control irregular migration from Haiti, including the deployment of military personnel to the Eastern border. One of the strictest measures includes requesting Haitian nationals to produce migration documentation (ID, work permit and proof of address) when accessing medical services in the country.

�� The Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo will travel to the US to participate in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Spring Meetings. Caputo’s visit takes place days after Argentina eased its restrictions on foreign exchange access and implemented a new exchange rate scheme. The Meetings will update the global economic projections amid the impact on global markets and trade of the escalating tariffs initiated by the Trump administration.

�� Pope Francis, who made history as the first Latin American pope, has passed away in Rome at the age of 88. Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Buenos Aires, Argentina, he was elected as the 266th pope on 13 March 2013. The Argentine government has announced a period of seven days for national mourning in his honor.

Tuesday 22 April

Holidays: �� Uruguay commemorates the ‘Landing of the 33 Patriots’ Day.

�� Chile will host in Santiago the annual “Expomin 2025”, the largest mining fair in Latin America. The business fair will take place between 22 and 26 April and will welcome mining industry experts from 30 countries, featuring Finland as guest country. Organizers expect at least 70,000 attendees.

�� A UN mission in Colombia will present a report on Colombia’s progress towards fulfilling the Peace Agreements. The report, which covers the period from December 27, 2024, to March 26, 2025, investigated violence within the country and identified an escalation of conflict in the Catatumbo region. The UN has raised concerns over the lack of government action to mitigate insecurity, noting that the peace agreement signed by FARC in Havana has not been fully implemented.

Wednesday 23 April

�� The trial against Salvadorian soldiers accused of murdering Dutch journalists in 1982, during the country’s civil war, will take place. The Court of First Instance will hold the trial against Colonel Mario Adalberto Reyes Mena, General José Guillermo García, and Colonel Francisco Antonio Morán for allegedly ambushing the reporters during the course of the civil war (1980-1992).

�� The Argentine Congress will create a committee in charge of investigating the “cryptogate” affair. The committee will oversee the investigation on the collapse of the “$LIBRA” cryptocurrency – leading to millions of dollars in losses – which President Javier Milei promoted. Congress will also summon two ministers, the head of the Cabinet and the head of the National Securities Commission, to testify. However, President Milei and his sister Karina, who have been linked to the affair, will not be questioned.

�� The foreign ministers of Mercosur countries will meet in Buenos Aires to discuss exempting specific US products from tariffs. The ministers also announced in a joint statement that they will discuss ‘modernizing’ Mercosur. The meeting comes as Argentinian president Milei has pushed for increased bilateral trade between his country and the US, threatening to sideline Mercosur.

Thursday 24 April

�� The Peruvian Constitutional Tribunal will review President Dina Boluarte's request to dismiss a constitutional complaint lodged against her by the Attorney General's Office. The complaint concerns Boluarte's alleged responsibility for the deaths of five individuals during the protests from December 2022 to January 2023. Boluarte's injunction aims to prevent a trial against her.

�� In the Dominican Republic, the ultranationalist organization, “Ancient Dominican Order”, will hold a rally against Haitian migrants. The nationalist organization will protest the government’s “insufficient measures” against irregular migration, particularly from Haitians. The rally will be held in Santo Domingo.

Friday 25 April

�� The Colombian department of Casanare will host the Governor Summit of the National Federation of Departments (FND). The event, which will take place between 25 and 26 April, gathers the country’s 32 department governors and representatives of the national government. The agenda includes debates on agro-industrialization, infrastructure for agriculture, transition toward sustainable tourism, among others.

�� The Argentine government will issue a public tender for the concessions of four large hydroelectric projects. The group is made up of the Alicurá, El Chocón and Piedra del Águila hydroelectric plants, located on the border between Río Negro and Neuquén – and Cerros Colorados – in Neuquén province. The concessions for these four plants granted in 1993 expired in August 2023 and have since been provisionally extended by the Argentine state in order to prepare for a call for tenders.

Weekend

Saturday 26 April

��️ Nothing pressing for today. If you were unable to attend our recent Nelson webinar, don't forget that you can access it on demand. This will allow you to see how Nelson can contribute to your success in Latin America. You can find the recorded webinar in English by clicking here .

Sunday 27 April

�� In the Dominican Republic, workers from the “National People’s Coordination” (CPS) trade union will lead a march in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the April Revolution. The union said the march complements a series of activities including public assemblies in some cities but mostly located in Santo Domingo.

Keeping an Eye On

In this section, we highlight topics or people we will be monitoring during the week.

�� Will Abinader’s nationalist gambit endanger the Dominican Republic’s stability?

Until recently, the Dominican Republic was one of Latin America’s few economic success stories . The country boasted impressive GDP growth rates (averaging 5.4% between 2002 and 2022) in a largely stagnant region. It also managed to halve poverty rates in the last two decades, while its politics seemed largely stable. However, that rosy picture threatens to come to an end. A recent economic slowdown, in addition to a rise in ultranationalist sentiment, could undo years of progress.

President Abinader – like many conservative leaders around the world, faced with a resurgent far-right – has decided to toughen his rhetoric on migration. He recently announced a slate of stringent migration measures, designed to stymie Haitian migration. However, as we have seen elsewhere, this does little to assuage radicals. In fact, it may embolden them. Ultranationalist organizations, such as “Código Patria” and “Antigua Orden Dominicana,” have already demonstrated their capacity to mobilize anti-Haitian sentiment through public demonstrations and intimidation of human rights advocates.

The convergence of economic deceleration, the recent nightclub disaster that resulted in 231 fatalities, and heightened migration tensions create a challenging political environment as the country approaches the 2028 elections — when Abinader cannot seek reelection due to constitutional term limits. Is the Dominican miracle coming to an end, defeated by the twin evils of economic stagnation and far-right extremism? We’ll be keeping an eye on the country's political stability in the coming months.

�� How will Argentina’s currency gamble play out?

Is President Javier Milei's bold move to a floating exchange rate band the economic reset Argentina desperately needs, or a risky gamble that could backfire? As of April 12, 2025, Milei has abandoned Argentina's tightly controlled “crawling peg” system in favor of allowing the peso to float within a $1000-$1400 (ARS) peso band against the dollar. This dramatic shift came after the Central Bank burned through $1.8 billion in reserves over just 11 days in March trying to maintain the previous system.

With $20 billion in IMF support secured to cushion the transition, the next 90 days will be critical. Watch for immediate market reactions, potential inflation spikes, and whether exporters begin repatriating dollars as hoped. If successful, this could mark the beginning of Argentina's economic recovery; if not, it might trigger another crisis. Either way, with the peso's value, inflation rates, and Central Bank reserves hanging in the balance, we'll be keeping an eye on whether Milei's currency gamble pays off.

Upcoming Events

On 22 April, The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) will facilitate a discussion with central bank presidents from Latin America and the Caribbean to gain direct insights into important monetary and financial trends in the region.

The Center for Strategic & International Studies' Project on Prosperity and Development is set to host the ninth annual Global Development Forum (GDF) on 23 April. This forum will gather experts and key players to explore future opportunities and necessary steps for US engagement with developing and emerging market countries worldwide.

The 55th Washington Conference on the Americas is scheduled for 7 May. The event will include keynote speeches and interviews with cabinet officials and international leaders, along with high-level panel discussions featuring industry experts. Attendance is available in person for organization members, non-members, and invited guests; although registration is required.

Thanks for taking the time to read The Week Ahead. If there's something you think we overlooked, or you'd simply like to share your thoughts, we'd love to hear from you. Feel free to reach out at press@southernpulse.com .

Could Trump’s Mining Policies Divide the Americas?

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 14:59:43 GMT

At first glance, it seems Latin America would stand to gain from the US’ increased demand for critical minerals, which hold the key to industries such as microchips or electric vehicles (EVs).

The US has largely turned to purchases from Latin America for critical minerals such as lithium and copper. An estimated 94% of the lithium the US imported between 2019 and 2022 came from Argentina and Chile, while at least 75% of US refined copper imports were sourced from the region during the same period from Chile (64%) and Mexico (11%).

Latin America’s proximity to the US along with existing trade agreements make shipping minerals from the south to the north a smooth process. Along with being resource-rich, the region also lacks the geopolitical strife, civil wars, or dependency on Russian energy of other regions. The choice of these countries as suppliers is not just economical, but geopolitical. China dominates the world supply of processed lithium and refined copper.

However, new mines and a second Donald Trump presidency could significantly change this relationship during the next decade as the country shifts its focus toward domestic production.

Easier said than done

Initially, the Latin American republics seem likely beneficiaries of the new national security logic that has come to underpin US supply chains: critical minerals should be imported from trusted allies, rather than depending on potential enemies. However, this logic has a natural, further step: if procuring key minerals from Latin America is “safer” than from China, wouldn’t sourcing them domestically be the safest option?

This was the thinking of the Joe Biden administration (2021-2024), which sought to secure the supply of critical minerals by promoting domestic production. The wide-ranging Inflation Reduction Act penciled in billions of dollars in loans towards domestic mining and processing projects that would bolster self-sufficiency in key metals like lithium. Through such plans, the administration sought to kill two birds with one stone by boosting domestic manufacturing and garnering support from environmentalists by promoting a transition to cleaner energies.

In practice, matters became more complicated — especially for lithium production. While lithium batteries are the key to reducing reliance on fossil fuel engines, the mining process for lithium raises environmental concerns. Lithium is extracted from brine pumped from underground aquifers, potentially draining water from areas in which it is extremely scarce. Since lithium is often found near rare plants and endangered animal habitats, environmental groups and communities have pushed back against many proposed projects.

A paradigmatic case is the Rhyolite Ridge mine in Nevada. The project, owned by an Australian company, promises to quadruple US lithium output. Its location, however, threatened to endanger a rare desert flower. Environmental litigation ensued for over six years before the project received approval.

Despite financial support from the federal government, lithium miners have struggled to develop assets in the US. This is largely due to regulatory red tape, and a slump in lithium prices since 2023 has not helped. Rhyolite Ridge, the only mine approved during Biden’s tenure, came in the nick of time: it received the green light just a week before the 2024 presidential election. In all, US lithium mines need almost a decade to go from discovery to production, while similar mines in Australia often complete this process in under five. Despite being identified as a national security concern, lithium mining in the US has advanced slowly.

Land of plenty

Wherever it is in Latin America, Southern Pulse has the experience, network, and relationships to simplify this challenging region with honest, direct answers to your most complicated questions.

Want to learn more? Let’s chat .

SP Emerging Finance Series | Crypto Usage in Latin America

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 01:59:05 GMT

Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, reached a record high value of more than USD93,000 this week after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.

While it may be easy to write off cryptocurrencies as a fad, any business in Latin America should pay attention to this sizable — and growing — financial sector.

Latin America received nearly USD415 billion in crypto between July 2023 and June 2024, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis found in its latest Geography of Cryptocurrency report.

Crypto is not going away anytime soon, and companies should take time to understand their exposure to digital assets.

Southern Pulse is excited to bring you the Emerging Finance Series, which aims to explore and clarify the latest trends in financial technology. Our first article explores the growing use of cryptocurrencies in Latin America. The content below is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

What are cryptocurrencies?

Cryptocurrencies (often known as “crypto”) are a digital form of money whose transactions are recorded using a public ledger. They are decentralized, meaning that no central bank controls them.

Cryptocurrencies fall into a wider category of digital assets, which also includes non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). These digital assets are held in a digital wallet. They can be traded for other types of cryptocurrencies or “cashed out” in the form of local fiat currencies.

While government regulations may require crypto exchanges formally established in a Latin American country to collect customer information for large transactions, the ledger does not publicly show the individuals or groups associated with a particular wallet.

Cryptocurrencies may often be associated with scams or fraud, but they also offer financial inclusion opportunities for individuals and businesses in a region prone to inflation and informal work . This brings a unique set of risks and challenges to an area already under scrutiny for tax evasion, money laundering, and the penetration of organized crime.

Here are three key things you should know about cryptocurrency use in Latin America.

Which countries have the highest volume of crypto transactions?

Latin America lags behind larger economies such as the United States and Europe when looking at the volume of crypto transactions the region receives. However, it has proven to be a unique testing ground for crypto services due to factors including high inflation, informal work, reliance on remittances, and — in some countries — limited access to US dollars.

While El Salvador has dominated the spotlight after making bitcoin legal tender in 2021, most of the crypto activity in Latin America happens in other countries.

Argentina received about USD91.9 billion between July 2023 and June 2024, Chainalysis found — the highest amount of any country in the region. Brazil followed with about USD90.3 billion. Venezuela’s market expanded the most, with its value received growing 110% year-over-year.

Four Latin American countries have a spot on the latest Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index measuring grassroots crypto adoption: Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico and Argentina.

The firm found that Latin America’s crypto market grew 42.5% year-over-year — the second fastest-growing region after Sub-Saharan Africa.

The age group with the highest crypto adoption rate was the 25 to 34-year-old segment, a study from Mexico-based crypto exchange Bitso found earlier this year.

While Central America makes up a smaller share of crypto transactions than larger markets such as Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, the region is notable for being home to several grassroots projects seeking to develop so-called “circular economies” with bitcoin. These include Bitcoin Beach in El Zonte, El Salvador; Bitcoin Lake in Panajachel, Guatemala; and Bitcoin Jungle in Costa Rica. Separately, a high-profile startup city on the Honduran island of Roatán called Próspera — which recognized bitcoin as a unit of account — gained international attention for its legal battles with the government.

What are the main use cases for crypto in Latin America?

The Week Ahead: 11-17 November 2024

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 00:47:39 GMT

The new season is a great reason to make and keep resolutions. Whether it’s eating right or cleaning out the garage, here are some tips for making and keeping resolutions.

The Week Ahead

This week’s coverage likely will be dominated by two international summits in Latin America: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Lima, Peru, and the Ibero-American Summit in Cuenca, Ecuador. World leaders from Spain to China will visit the region this week. Watch out for possible transport strikes in Lima and Argentina’s new inflation figures.

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