Colombia

Taking a Look at Colombia's Peace Deal Post Plebiscite

boz (James Bosworth, Southern Pulse CEO): Hi everyone

boz: On 2 October, a plebiscite on the Colombian government's peace process with the FARC failed by a very narrow margin. The government and FARC had already signed the agreement and the FARC were moving towards demobilization. The past three weeks since the referendum have been a flurry of activity as the government has worked to rescue the peace agreement and the “no” side lead by former President Uribe has tried to figure out how to manage their stunning upset victory.

We’re going to chat for the next half hour or so about the peace process after the no vote and what it means for Colombia’s future. Let me start with the first obvious question: Will Santos be able to save the peace process?

Networked Notes - 15 Sept 2016

All polling shows the Colombia plebiscite is likely to pass by a significant margin. Still, the Santos government is not taking victory for granted. Sources close to the government suggest an ongoing press for votes to deliver a giant margin of victory if possible, giving the peace deal the largest possible mandate.

Networked Notes - 30 Aug 2016

Colombia

The FARC leadership expressed sincere gratitude to Venezuela’s government for the success of recent peace negotiations. In reality, it is Venezuela’s government which should be thanking the FARC. The extended peace negotiations are a critical reason why Colombia specifically, and Latin America in general, has been reluctant to more forcefully denounce abuses of human rights and democratic values in Venezuela.

Cabinet Reshuffle Amidst Santos’s Declining Approval Ratings

Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos’s approval rating has sunk to 24 percent, with an urban approval rating dipping to just 13 percent according to a March 2016 YanHaas poll. Santos, who began his first term with a 75 percent approval rating in August 2010, faces growing opposition during a time of low oil prices, high inflation, and a controversial peace agreement in the works.

Networked Notes - 29 March 2016

The PMDB is expected to break from the Rousseff government today in Brazil. Whether or not President Rousseff is impeached, one key issue to watch moving forward will be PMDB unity, which would be a historical first. Vice President Michel Temer appears to be making a play for the presidency, but in spite of his high rank, he's a weak person to hold the coalition together. Speaker of the House Eduardo Cunha broke away from the government several months ago, creating a rift in the party. Several PMDB politicians in Congress will feel pressure to protect Rousseff on impeachment. Some members of Congress will likely sit on the sidelines and wait to join the winning side when it becomes apparent. And, of course, the party has a large number of its own corruption scandals that could further test its cohesiveness as Lava Jato investigations progress.

Networked Notes - 1 March 2016

The FARC traveled to previous rounds of Cuba via planes funded by the Venezuelan government and PDVSA. Now, with the Venezuelan governments finances in deep jeopardy, that line of funding for the FARC has allegedly ended. The FARC leadership received Red Cross support to provide their transportation to Cuba for what may be the final round (optimistically) of peace negotiations.